Polymarket US, Polymarket & Kalshi

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Analysis

Market

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 50bps before July 2026?

Verdict

BET YES· buy under 54¢

Thesis

The market prices a 42% chance of significant Fed easing, but futures markets, recent inflation data, and Fed communications collectively point to a higher likelihood.

88% confidenceMedium risk

3 risk factors

Confidence range spans 12 percentage points — moderate uncertainty
Resolution depends on cumulative cuts, not a single meeting
Market liquidity ($85k) may limit position size

Our estimate

54.0%

range 48.0% – 60.0%

Market

42¢

implied 42.0%

Market

Our estimate

37%65%

Gap is edge — not a performance claim.

Edge: +12.0pp
Expected value: +29¢
Reading: Market underprices Yes relative to our range.

Sample analysis — full verdict adds sourced reasoning, resolution risks & ambiguities, exit levels, and Kelly bet sizing.

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